Exchange Rate Strategies During the EU Enlargement
ProgrammeVenue: Hotel Bara, 34-36 Hegyalja út, Budapest - 27-30 November 2002
Date: Wednesday, 27 November , 2002
Session I: Theoretical models of exchange rate regimes
13.30 - 15.00: Keynote presentations and discussion- Peter Bofinger (University of Würzburg)
15.00 - 15.30 Coffee break
15.30 - 17.30: Presentation of accepted papers:
- Darja Borsic (University of Maribor): The Validity of Purchasing Power Parity Theory in Transition
- Jan Fidrmuc (Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn): The Strategic Aspects of Exchange Rate Regime Choice for the Accession Candidate Countries
- Wilhelm Salater (National Bank of Romania, Bucharest): The Choice of Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes in the Era of Globalization: Inflation Targeting versus Currency Board
- Juraj Valachy (CERGE-EI, Charles University, Prague): Incorporation of Poisson Jumps into a Model with Nonparametrically Estimated Diffusion and Application on the CEE Countries’ Exchange Rate19.00 Welcome Dinner
Thursday, 28 November , 2002
Session II: Recent lessons with exchange rate policy in pre-accession economies
9.00-11.30 Keynote presentations and discussion:- Jacek Rostowski (CASE Foundation, Warsaw): Why Unilateral Euroization is Suitable for (some) EU Applicant Countries
- Vladimir Lavrac (IER, Ljubljana)11.30 - 11. 45 Coffee break
11.45 - 13.45: Presentation of accepted papers
- Andrius Bogdanovicius (Lithuanian Free Market Institute, Vilnius): Lithuania’s Experience Linking National Currency to Euro
- Michael Frömmel (University of Hannover) - Franziska Schobert (Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt): Nominal Anchors in EU-accession Countries - Recent Experiences
- Tomas Holub (Charles University, Prague): Importing Low Inflation via Pegged Exchange Rates, Currency Boards and Monetary Unions
- Gunther Schnabl (Tuebingen University): An Informal Euro Standard as a First Step for EMU Membership13.45 - 14.45: Buffet lunch
14.45 - 16.45: Presentation of accepted papers
- Bostjan Jazbec (University of Ljubljana) - Fabrizio Coricelli (University of Siena)- Igor Masten( University of Ljubljana): Exchange Rates Pass-through in Candidate Countries
- Julda Kielyte (Hamburg University): Exchange Rate Arrangements in the Run-up to the EMU: Some Experience in Currency Board Countries
- Evzen Kocenda (CERGE-EI, Charles University, Prague): Exchange Rate Regimes and Volatility: Comparison of the Snake and Visegrad
- Gábor Orbán (Budapest University of Economics): The Viability of the Baltic Way toward Convergence and EMU16.45 - 17.00. Coffee break
17.00 - 18.30: Presentation of accepted papers:
- Flora Prieto(FP Inversiones Plafinicación y Research, Spain): Influence of Non-prioritized Economic and Social Elements on Exchange Rate Regimes(Annex)
- Bas van Aarle (Catholic University Leuven, LICOS, Centre for Transition Economics) - Joseph Plasmans (University of Antwerp)- Bruno Merlevede (UFSIA - RUCA, University of Antwerp): A Small Macro-Economic Model of the EU-Accession Countries
- Jizhong Zhou - Jürgen von Hagen (Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn): The Determination of Capital Controls in Transition Economies: Which Role do Exchange Rate Regimes Play?Friday, 29 November , 2002
Session III. Exchange rate strategies and exogenous shocks
9.00-11.30 Keynote presentations and discussion- Andreas Freytag (University of Cologne): Choice of an Exchange-rate Arrangement, Institutional Setting and Inflation: Empirical Evidence from Latin America
- Fabrizio Coricelli (University of Siena): Exchange Rate Regimes and Shocks11.30 - 11.45: Coffee break
11.45 -13.45: Presentation of accepted papers
- Vladimir Benacek (Charles University, FSV, Institute of Economic Studies, Prague) - Ladislav Prokop (Czech National Bank, Prague) - Jan Visek (Charles University): Specialization, Competitiveness, Growth and Trade Policies: Microeconomic Factors behind the Balance of Trade
- Dubravko Mihaljek (Bank for International Settlements, Switzerland): The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Central Europe: a Disaggregated Analysis
- Balázs Égert (University of Paris): Nominal and Real Convergence in Estonia: The Balassa - Samuelson (Dis)connection. Does Disaggregation Provide Better Understanding?
- Christoph Fischer (Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt): Real Currency Appreciation in Accession Countries: Balassa-Samuelson and Investment Demand13.45 -14.45: Buffet lunch
14. 45-16.45: Presentation of accepted papers
- Hubert Gabrisch (Institute for Economic Research, Halle): Financial Fragility and Exchange Rate Arrangements of EU Candidate Countries
- Velimir Sonje (Raiffeisen Bank, Austria D.D. Zagreb): Impact of Currency Substitution on the Choice of the Exchange Rate Regime During EU Enlargement Process: Lessons for EU Accession Countries
- Cezary Wojcik (Warsaw School of Economics) - Ronald MacDonald (Strathclyde University, Glasgow): Catching up: The Role of Demand and Supply Side Effects on the Real Exchange Rates of Accession Countries.
- Friedrich Heinz (Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd., London): Exchange Rate Alternatives Before EMU Enlargement16.45 - 17.00 Coffee break
17.00 - 18.00: Presentation of accepted papers
- Kirsten Lommatzsch - Silke Tober (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Berlin): What is behind the Real Appreciation of the Accession Countries’ Currencies?
- Daniel Daianu (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest): Opening the Capital Account of Transition Economies: How Much and How Fast? (Irina Balteanu)Saturday, 30 November, 2002
Session IV: The choice of exchange rate regime during the enlargement process
9.00-11.30: Keynote presentations and discussion
- Lucio de Souza (ECARÉ, Brussels) - Elisabeth Ledrut (the Netherlansche Bank): Alternative Paths Towards EMU:Lessons from an Expanded Mundell-Fleming Model forthe Accession Countries
- Peter Backé (Austrian National Bank, Vienna)11.30 - 11.45: Coffee break
11.45 - 13.45: Presentation of accepted papers
- Daniel Gros - Alexandr Hobza (Center for European Policy Studies, Brussels): Exchange Rate Variability as an OCA Criterion: Are the Candidates Ripe for the Euro?
- Lukasz Rawdanowitz (Centre for Social and Economic Research - Foundation, Warsaw): Poland’s Accession to EMU - Choosing the Exchange Rate Parity
- Pál Gáspár (ICEG European Center): Exchange Rate Policy Dilemmas Prior to EMU Entry13.45 - 14.45: Buffet lunch
14.45 - 16.15: Presentation of accepted papers
- Marc Alexandre Senegas (University Montesquieu Bordeaux IV) - Jean-Sebastian Pentecote (C.E.R.E.S.U.R. University of La Réunion): ERMII Anchoring on the Way to EMU: More Notional than Real Effects?
- Jerome Vacher (International Monetary Fund,Washington): The Level of Foreign Reserves in EU Accession Countries
- Jens Hölscher (University of Brighton) -Mariusz Jarmuzek (CASE Foundation Warsaw) : Over-or Undervalued Euroland Entry?
- László Jankovics (University of Debrecen): The Bumpy Road to EMU: Similarities and Discrepancies in the Accession Countries16.15: Concluding remarks and end of the meeting